Former top civil servant in Wales fears chances of further devolution by 2011 "not good"

The omens for Wales obtaining further law-making powers in 2011 are “not good”, its former top civil servant has said.

Writing in CIPFA’s Public Money & Management journal, Sir Jon Shortridge, who was Permanent Secretary from 1999 to 2008, said he was “in no doubt that, in time, Wales will be granted full parliamentary powers on the Scottish model”.

However, he added, “quite when that will be is open to question. The omens for securing these powers in time for the third – 2011 – Assembly are not good. The All-Wales Convention exposed the risks, and it is by no means clear whether both Plaid and Labour will be prepared to proceed with a referendum until they can be more confident that they will secure a ‘yes’ vote.”

Earlier this month members of the Welsh Assembly voted in favour of a referendum on its legislative powers. The Welsh government had put forward the motion after receiving a report from the All-Wales Convention in November 2009, which said a referendum could be won but that such an outcome was not guaranteed.

Sir Jon warned that the use under the Government of Wales Act 2006 of legislative competence orders – where the UK government agrees to grant primary legislative powers to the Assembly – was an “ingenious interim solution, but one which is proving difficult to implement in practice”. Chief among the problems were resistance in Westminster to writing a “blank cheque” and the “inordinately long” time the process takes.

He insisted that “despite its difficult birth, the Assembly in many ways has been a triumph” and delivered some real and important benefits to Wales. Its most important achievements include:

• Ensuring that the Welsh budget is much more effectively spent than it was in the past. “This is because the final budget is the outcome of a process that involves all 60 elected members and all the Welsh political parties”
• Delivering better quality political and administrative decision-making, with the decision-makers, both political and official, subject to much greater and better scrutiny “than was ever possible in the past.”
• Securing a reputation for good quality administration and financial management in areas such as major capital projects and subsidy payments to farmers
• Supplying well-prepared legislation, whether primary or secondary. “And there have hardly been any successful challenges of decisions in the courts,” Sir Jon added
• Embarking upon a series of innovative reforms, often around providing free access to services. It has also developed a distinctive approach to education
• Functioning effectively without a government that has the kind of overall majority which has become the norm in Westminster.

Sir Jon also argued that there was no case for further reducing the Welsh Assembly’s budget, pointing out that it remains one of the poorest parts of the UK. “It can be argued that one of the reasons Wales is so relatively poor is that it had been governed from England for too long,” he added. “Continued funding through the Barnett formula is the least it deserves in present circumstances.”