Spending on SEND expected to more than double in real terms between 2015 and 2028, IFS report claims

In its report published today (21 January), the IFS found that overall, school spending per pupil rose by 10% in real terms between 2019 and 2025. However, mainstream school spending per pupil increased by only 5% over this period.

Meanwhile, the report pointed to OBR forecasts showing a £6-billion gap between expected funding and spending on SEND in 2028.

The IFS said: “To set this in context, that shortfall is equivalent to 9% of the anticipated total schools budget in that year.

“The government has three options for addressing this pressure: reforms to slow the growth in spending; topping up the overall education budget; and/or making cuts elsewhere in the education budget.”

In its recent post-16 white paper, the government set out plans for a £450 million real-terms increase in funding for 2026.

The IFS said this would translate into a 2.5% increase in real-terms funding per student.  

The report noted: “Maintaining spending per student at its 2026 level in real terms would require total 16 - 18 funding to increase by almost £150 million (in today’s prices) by 2028.

“Extra money is required as the number of students is projected to increase by around 70,000 (3%) between 2025 and 2028.”

Luke Sibieta, IFS Research Fellow and author said: “The most important education issue facing the government is the growing dysfunction in the special educational needs system. The problems here are not new, but they have been growing, and the government is right to stress the importance of reform for the sake of everyone involved – children, families, schools and councils. But we have now reached crunch time. In the near term, ministers face a stark set of choices: slow the growth of SEND spending, accept an ongoing squeeze on mainstream school funding, and/or inject additional resources into education through higher taxes or reductions elsewhere.

“Reform must be part of the picture. The current system is increasingly costly and failing to deliver for everyone. Whether the government can both put the system on a stronger long-term footing, and manage to generate shorter-term savings, will be a crucial test for the forthcoming schools white paper.”

Responding to the report, Cllr Amanda Hopgood, Chair of the Local Government Association’s Children, Young People and Families Committee, said: “These findings drive home the need to urgently reform the SEND system. Despite spending on SEND massively increasing over the last decade, the educational attainment of children with SEND has failed to improve, while councils continue to build up huge deficits related to SEND spending.

“The Government must ensure the upcoming Schools White Paper sets out a programme of reform that boosts inclusion in mainstream schools and write off councils’ high needs deficits to help stabilise councils’ finances.

“With promoting inclusion a core part of the Government’s Best Start in Life agenda, it should also ensure there is greater inclusivity in the early years.”

The LGA recently called for tribunals in a reformed special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) system to “take account of value for the public purse when making decisions”.

The Government is expected to publish its delayed White Paper early in 2026.

Lottie Winson